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they expect a marginal on this day according to the forecast discussion which i'll send in the comments
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    ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
    ACUS48 KWNS 170857

    SPC AC 170857


    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

    0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025


    Valid 201200Z - 251200Z


    ...DISCUSSION...

    ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6...

    On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the

    Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the

    Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with

    convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is

    expected to be marginal.


    On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly

    move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the

    Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the

    system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe

    potential.


    ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8...

    From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to

    increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level

    trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S.

    Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist

    airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the

    lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm

    development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during

    the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that

    moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place.

    Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered

    on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday.


    On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio

    and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the

    Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will

    be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but

    predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its

    associated trough.


    ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025