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Vision Media 2 years ago (edited) • 9 views

Austin, we have a problem! Tesla descends into battery hell

Elon Musk says prototypes are easy, production is hell. And when it comes to the long-awaited Cybertruck, Tesla's hell is its pioneering 4680 battery.

Tesla delivered the first of its futuristic stainless steel-plated electric pickups last month and CEO Musk said in October that it would probably hit an annual production rate of a quarter of a million vehicles at some point during 2025.

But Tesla is still a long way off that kind of production pace, and one of the main bottlenecks is the speed it can make the 4680 batteries used in the Cybertruck with its new dry-coating technology, nine people familiar with the matter said.

Tesla's Giga Texas factory is currently churning out 4680 battery cells at rate only sufficient to power about 24,000 Cybertrucks a year, or about a 10th of the required output, according to Reuters calculations based on a combination of public data and unpublished figures provided by sources.

Being able to ramp up battery output massively by dry-coating electrodes - rather than using the slower, more costly wet-coating - was a key factor behind Tesla's forecasts in 2020 that it would more than halve battery costs, cut investment significantly, and create smaller, greener factories.

The nine people, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said Tesla had yet to crack dry-coating at the industrial scale needed to make 4680 batteries fast enough to hit its production targets.

The people said dry-coating the anode in the 4680 cells was not problematic but Tesla was struggling with the same technique for the cathode - the most expensive component in a battery.

Dry-coating anodes and cathodes is proven in the laboratory, as well as for smaller energy storage devices such as super capacitors, and even some small batteries, according to Yuan Gao, a battery technology consultant.

"But no one has done it so far for large EV batteries at a mass scale and at a high enough speed. Tesla is the first one to try to commercialize this," said Gao, who has worked in the industry for three decades.

"The challenge is that not only does Tesla have to scale it up and speed up the process, it also must develop its own equipment and tools. It's daunting to say the least," he said.

Tesla did not respond to detailed questions from Reuters for this story.

CRACKING THE CODE

According to three of the sources, the 4680 batteries in Cybertrucks include an estimated 1,360 individual cells.

That means Tesla would need to make 340 million cells a year, or almost a million a day, to supply 250,000 of the electric pickups, which are entering a hot market with rivals such as Ford's (F.N) F-150 Lightning, Rivian's (RIVN.O) R1T and an electric Hummer from General Motors (GM.N).

At the moment, Tesla's Austin factory takes about 16 weeks to make 10 million 4680 cells, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from Tesla, verified by the three sources.

That translates to 32.5 million cells a year, or enough for just under 24,000 pickups - and that's only for the Cybertruck.

Tesla also wants to use 4680 batteries to power other vehicles, most notably the $25,000 small car the company is scrambling to launch by the mid-2020s.

Tesla has some limited production capacity for 4680 cells in Fremont, California but its plant there is mainly for pilot production. Panasonic (6752.T), one of Tesla's long-standing battery suppliers, is planning to build at least two plants in the United States but has only just broken ground on the first.

Two of the nine people familiar with the matter believe Tesla's progress with scaling up 4680 production will likely gain steam, especially once it achieves stability with the production know-how on one production line.

They said Tesla had been focusing on establishing robust know-how to produce batteries without flaws first time round. It's a time-consuming process but, "once you crack the code and establish stability, it is like exponential", one of them said.

"Speed would pick up. There is already a lot of traction in dry coating," the person said.

Tesla's battery tsar Drew Baglino said in October that the company was now producing 4680 cells on two production lines in Austin and plans to install a total of eight lines there in two phases, with the last four due to be running in late 2024.

Still, one of the two people said replicating established know-how from one production line to the next is no cakewalk.

The source said only about 5% of cells made on profitable production lines are ditched but scrap rates could shoot up to 30%-50% and hover there for several months as each new line gets going.

One of the sources said Tesla's dry-coating method for cathodes was not proving to be any faster than the old wet process, though scrap rates had dropped to as low as 10% to 20%.
Baglino did not respond to requests for comment for this story.

'GOOEY MESS'

The sources said Tesla was struggling to mix the cathode materials, which include lithium, manganese and nickel, with a binder and stick them to a metallic foil to produce a cathode - without using moisture.

Two of the people said the process worked for small amounts but when Tesla tried to scale it up, a lot of heat was generated and this melted the binder, which one of the sources believed was polytetrafluoroethylene, more commonly known as Teflon.

"If you melt the glue, pretty soon everything will become one big chunk of gooey mess," another of the sources said.

Equally problematic for Tesla are the machines used to coat the metallic foil to produce battery electrodes - equipment which is akin to huge magazine and newspaper printing machines with large rollers, the sources said.

To accelerate cell production, Tesla is trying to coat multiple strips of magnetic foil with active battery materials at the same time, and at high speeds.

That calls for large, wide rollers, as well as applying tremendous force to press the materials onto the foil. But because the rollers are large and wide, applying pressure evenly is proving to be a challenge, the sources said.

And when pressure is not applied evenly, Tesla gets electrodes with uneven surfaces and thickness, which are no use for its battery cells and need to be scrapped, the sources said.

Perhaps more problematic, Tesla's Baglino told a fireside chat at a battery conference in March that Tesla was still building a completely new quality verification system so they could weed out cells with flaws in coating.

One of the sources with knowledge of the matter, said specifically it was about building data infrastructure around Tesla's battery development, manufacturing and in-field use because in some cases the flaws were hidden in the coating and did not show up for a few months down the road.

In other words, Tesla doesn't quite know yet which dry cells are good, and which ones need to be junked, the source said.

REUTERS Reporting by Norihiko Shirouzu

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Vision Media 2 years ago (edited) • 8 views

Putin says Russia is ready to talk on Ukraine

Summary
1.Putin says Russia could talk on Ukraine
2.Russia will not give up its interests - Putin
3.Russia has initiative in Ukraine - Putin
4.Russia has laid 7,000 km of mines - defence minister

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia would be prepared to talk to Ukraine, the United States and Europe about the future of Ukraine if they wanted to, but that Moscow would defend its national interests.

Putin, who sent troops into Ukraine in 2022, has repeatedly said he would be prepared to talk about peace, though Western officials say he is waiting for the U.S. presidential election in November before making a genuine effort.

"In Ukraine, those who are aggressive towards Russia, and in Europe and in the United States - do they want to negotiate? Let them. But we will do it based on our national interests," Putin told a meeting of the defence leadership in Moscow.

"We will not give up what is ours," Putin said, adding that Russia did not intend to fight with Europe.

Russia controls about 17.5% of the territory that was internationally recognised as part of Ukraine when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and last year said the four additional regions of Ukraine that its troops partially control are part of Russia. Kyiv says it will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from Ukraine.

RUSSIA AT WAR

Putin spoke at a meeting of the defence ministry which was attended by the military top brass, including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, as well as Federal Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov.

Russian troops, Putin said, now had the initiative on the battlefield.

"We are not going to abandon the goals of the special military operation," Putin said, though he added that Russia needed better military communication, reconnaissance, targeting and satellite capability.

He said Russia's defence industry was responding faster than that of the West and said Russia would continue to upgrade its nuclear forces and keep its combat readiness at a high level.

Russia's production of tanks has increased since February 2022 by 5.6 times, unmanned aerial vehicles by 16.8 times and artillery shells by 17.5 times, Shoigu said.

He said Russia had taken on 490,000 contract and voluntary soldiers in 2023. Next year, Russia will try to boost that contracted force to 745,000 men.

Russian forces have laid 7,000 km of minefields in Ukraine - some up to 600 metres wide, along with 1.5 million anti-tank barriers and 2,000 km of anti-tank ditches, Shoigu said.

Putin said Ukrainian membership of NATO "is not acceptable for Russia in 10 years, and not in 20".

REUTERS by By Guy Faulconbridge

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Vision Media 2 years ago • 11 views

The Suez Canal Becomes a New Front in Israel-Hamas Conflict
Oil giant BP joins cargo shipowners in diverting vessels from the critical Middle East route after attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels

Many of the world’s biggest shipping lines, oil producers and other cargo owners are diverting vessels from transiting through the main route to the Suez Canal, citing security concerns from Houthi rebel attacks in the area.

The risk to vessels through one of the world’s critical trade routes has spurred discussions among government officials about establishing a multinational task force to protect seaborne traffic, according to people familiar with the matter.

U.S. and European officials are discussing a Red Sea naval escort service, and are still trying to secure the support of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two main players in the Yemeni civil war, these people said.

Oil giant BP on Monday became the latest company to halt its tankers from sailing through the Red Sea after attacks by Yemen’s Iran-allied Houthi forces. Several of the biggest boxship owners—A.P. Moller-Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM—have also decided to divert some ships.

The three big shipping alliances, made up of the world’s top 10 boxship players, have issued a “pending” notice on Red Sea routes, meaning ships are asked to drift or divert on a case-by-case basis. On average there are 17 boxships crossing the Suez Canal daily. Brokers say it is now around 14, but the Suez Canal says traffic is normal.

The conflict between Israel and Hamas had, until now, barely interrupted global flows of crude and cargo beyond halting small volumes shipped in and out of Israel. Oil was still sailing through the Red Sea on Monday.

After BP’s withdrawal, traders and brokers said they were concerned that other major shipping and trading companies could follow suit. For the world economy, disruption to shipping in the Middle East would compound a slowdown in transit through the Panama Canal due to low water levels.

If the Red Sea becomes a no-go zone for most tankers, it would redraw the global oil market for the second time in two years after the war on Ukraine and related sanctions forced Russia to find new markets for its petroleum. That could send oil prices and tanker rates vaulting higher, said Richard Matthews, research director at E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers.

“All you know is it is going to cause chaos, and everything is going to get a lot more expensive,” he said. As of Monday morning, Matthews said most tanker companies were still willing to send their vessels through the shipping chokepoint, preventing a jump in prices.

Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose 2.5% to about $78 a barrel in Monday trading. The cost of chartering tankers in the region also edged up as shipowners looked to pass on higher insurance costs to traders renting their boats. That gave a boost to shares of tanker owners including Frontline and Tsakos Energy, which rose about 3% and 4%, respectively, in U.S. trading.

“It’s becoming more serious so we are diverting some tankers,” said Lars Barstad, the chief executive of Norway-based Frontline. “The escort force will be very much welcome. It will make passages slow significantly but it will be much safer.”

The Red Sea separates Africa from the Middle Eastern Gulf, and is bookended by Egypt’s Suez Canal to the north and Bab el-Mandeb to the south. Those two straits, combined with the Sumed pipeline running through Egypt, accounted for 12% of all the oil that traded by sea in the first half of 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. About 8% of the world’s trade in liquefied-natural gas also passes through those routes.

The Houthi group said in mid-November that it would target Israeli ships, and this month said it would widen that threat to prevent the passage of all ships to Israel if more humanitarian aid isn’t allowed into Gaza. Houthi forces have attacked vessels that have no association with Israel, maritime security firm Ambrey said in a note to clients late last week. The firm also said that instability in northern Somalia was raising the risk of piracy in the region.

Oil traders said a major drop in the number of tankers sailing through the Red Sea would affect the market in refined products such as diesel and gasoline more than the market in crude. That is because Europe has imported refined fuels in huge volumes from the Middle East and India since it stopped most shipments from Russia at the start of this year.

At the same time, Russian crude and fuel that once got bought by refiners in Europe now sails through the Red Sea to buyers in India, China and other fast-growing Asian markets. Mark Esposito, an analyst at commodities-data firm S&P Global, said daily southbound flows through the Suez Canal have risen by about 1.5 million barrels to 4.7 million barrels a day this year, while northbound volumes are up by about 300,000 barrels daily to 3.5 million.

For shipowners and the companies that charter their vessels, there are both reputational and financial dangers associated with sailing through a region where boats have been attacked. The biggest crude carriers hold more than $150 million in oil at current Brent prices.

Insurance premiums have gone up but not so high that there is a clear financial incentive to sail the long way around Africa, said Mike Salthouse, head of external affairs at NorthStandard, a U.K.-based insurer.

Still ship companies have a long history of operating in war zones where they can charge more money for their services. When international ships were attacked in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, tanker owners kept sailing through the region.

“There are about 10 ships drifting on the North entrance of the canal—ships heading from Europe to Asia—as they assess the situation,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at shipping platform Xeneta. “Geopolitics is showing its ugly face and shipping has been taken as a hostage.”

The Wall Street Journal

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Vision Media 2 years ago (edited) • 16 views

Putin says Russia has no plan to attack NATO, dismisses Biden remark as 'nonsense'

Summary
--Putin says Biden remark is 'complete nonsense'
--Biden said Putin would attack NATO if he won in Ukraine
--Putin: West will have to find common ground with Russia
--Putin says West wants to destroy Russia

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin dismissed as complete nonsense remarks by U.S. President Joe Biden that Russia would attack a NATO country if it won the war in Ukraine, adding that Russia had no interest in fighting the NATO military alliance.

The war in Ukraine has triggered the deepest crisis in Moscow's relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and Biden warned last year that a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia would trigger World War Three.

In a plea to Republicans not to block further military aid earlier this month, Biden warned that if Putin was victorious over Ukraine then the Russian leader would not stop and would attack a NATO country.

"It is complete nonsense - and I think President Biden understands that," Putin said in an interview published on Sunday by Rossiya state television, adding that Biden appeared to be trying to justify his own "mistaken policy" on Russia.

"Russia has no reason, no interest - no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military - to fight with NATO countries," Putin said.

The U.S.-led NATO alliance was founded in 1949 to provide Western security against the Soviet Union. After the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, it was enlarged to include some former Soviet and Warsaw Pact countries.

Putin has repeatedly cast the post-Cold War expansion of NATO as evidence of the West's arrogant way of dealing with Russia's security concerns.

Under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, "the Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all".

Putin said that Finland's entry into NATO in April would force Russia to "concentrate certain military units" in northern Russia near their border.

COLD WAR?

The failure of Ukraine's counteroffensive this year has raised questions in the West and inside Ukraine about just how realistic the Ukrainian and Western aims of defeating Russian forces in Ukraine are.

Officials in Moscow and the West have repeatedly spoken of a "new Cold War", with Russia and China on one side and the West on the other.

Asked about how common ground could be found with the West given the rhetoric on both sides, Putin said: "They will have to find common ground because they will have to reckon with us."

A senior U.S. State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said last month that Putin would not make peace before he knows the results of the November election in the United States.

The West, Putin said, had failed to understand the extent of the changes ushered in by the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, which he said had removed any genuine ideological basis for a confrontation between Russia and the West.

"I really did have a naive impression," Putin, a former KGB spy who rose to power in 1999, said of his impressions of the world in 2000.

"The reality is that after the fall of the Soviet Union, they considered that they just had to wait for a bit to completely destroy Russia," Putin said.

Putin casts the war as part of a much bigger struggle with the United States, which the Kremlin elite says aims to cleave Russia apart, grab its vast natural resources and then turn to settling scores with China.

The West, which presents Russia and China as its main threats, says it has no plan to destroy Russia. Ukraine says it will not rest until every last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory.

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